National Security

Tactical or strategic planning often confronts severe uncertainties. These uncertainties arise in characterizing the situation to be confronted, in assessing the intentions and capabilities of the parties, and in understanding the dynamics of interactions, etc. Info-gap theory has been applied to some of these problems.

  • Yakov Ben-Haim, 2006, Info-gap Decision Theory: Decisions Under Severe Uncertainty, 2nd edition, Academic Press, London.
    Section 3.2.9: Search and evasion.
    Section 3.2.11: Bio-terror preparedness with epidemiological models.
  • Yakov Ben-Haim, 2018, What strategic planners need to know,  Workshop on Strategic Uncertainty in National Security, Samuel Neaman Institute, Technion, 26.6.2018. Link to pre-print.
  • Yakov Ben-Haim, 2018, WEI-WUV for assessing force effectiveness: Managing uncertainty with info-gap theory, Military Operations Research, to appear. Abstract. Pre-publication version.
  • Yakov Ben-Haim, 2018, Positivism and its limitations for strategic intelligence: A non-constructivist info-gap critique, Intelligence and National Security, 33(6): 904-917. Abstract. Pre-publication version.
  • Yakov Ben-Haim, 2017, Does a better model yield a better argument? An info-gap analysis, Proceedings of the Royal Society, A, 5 April 2017. Abstract. Pre-publication version. Link to PRSA site. Summarized on here.
  • Yakov Ben-Haim, 2017, Assessing change: Intelligence assessment in support of policy in tumultuous times, Panel on The Intelligence-Policy Nexus, International Studies Association Annual Meeting, 22-25.2.2017, Baltimore, Maryland. Pre-print.
  • Yakov Ben-Haim, 2016, Policy neutrality and uncertainty: An info-gap perspective, Intelligence and National Security, published online 18.12.2015, vol.31, #7, pp978-992Pre-print.
  • Yakov Ben-Haim, 2016, Uncertainty and deterrence, Air and Space Power Journal – A&F, vol. 7, issue 3, pp.26-49. English online version. French online version.
  • Yakov Ben-Haim, 2015, Uncertainty and deterrence, International Studies Association Annual Conference, 18–21 February 2015, New Orleans. Pre-print.
  • Yakov Ben-Haim, 2015, Dealing with uncertainty in strategic decision-making, Parameters, US Army War College Quarterly, 45(3) Autumn 2015. Pre-print., Hebrew version.
  • Yakov Ben-Haim, 2014, Strategy selection: An info-gap methodology, Defense & Security Analysis, 30(2): 106-119. Pre-print.
  • Yakov Ben-Haim, 2014, Innovation dilemmas in military affairs, Maarachot, (in Hebrew) issue 454, pp.28-31, April 2014. Online version
  • Yakov Ben-Haim, 2011, Interpreting null results from measurements with uncertain correlations: An info-gap approach, Risk Analysis-An International Journal, vol.31 (1), pp.78-85.Preprint.
  • Song, Y.-X. , Huang, D.-B. , Xiao, P., 2013, Robustness analysis of equilibrium outcomes based on information-gap of hypergame preference perception, Xi Tong Gong Cheng Yu Dian Zi Ji Shu/Systems Engineering and Electronics, 35(2): 362-365.
  • Tania Mirer and Yakov Ben-Haim, 2010, Reliability Assessment of Explosive Material Based on Penalty Tests: An Info-Gap Approach, Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O, Journal of Risk and Reliability, vol. 224(4), pp.346-355. Pre-print.
  • Sisso, Itay, Tal Shima, and Yakov Ben-Haim, Info-gap approach to multi agent search under severe uncertainty, IEEE Transactions on Robotics, vol.26(6), pp.1032-1041. Pre-print.
  • Lior Davidovitch and Yakov Ben-Haim, 2011, Is your profiling strategy robust? Law, Probability and Risk, 10: 59-76. pdf preprint.
  • Dan Peled, Yakov Ben-Haim, Michael Ben-Gad, 2007, Allocating Security Expenditures under Knightian Uncertainty: An Info-Gap Approach, Samuel Neaman Institute for Advanced Studies in Science and Technology.
  • Anna Yoffe and Yakov Ben-Haim, 2006, An info-gap approach to policy selection for bio-terror response, IEEE International Conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics, ISI 2006, San Diego, CA, USA, May 23-24, 2006, pp.554-559. Also appearing in: Lecture Notes in Computer Science, Vol. 3975 LNCS, 2006, pp.554-559, Springer-Verlag, Berlin. Pre-print.
  • Matthias C.M. Troffeas and John Paul Gosling, 2012, Robust detection of exotic infectious diseases in animal herds: A comparative study of three decision methodologies under severe uncertainty, Intl J of Approximate Reasoning, 53: 1271-1281.
  • Matthias C.M. Troffeas and John Paul Gosling, Robust detection of exotic infectious diseases in animal herds: A comparative study of two decision methodologies under severe uncertainty, 7th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications, Innsbruck, Austria, 25-28 July 2011. Paper.
  • L. Joe Moffitt, John K. Stranlund and Craig D. Osteen, 2008, Robust detection protocols for uncertain introductions of invasive species, Journal of Environmental Management, vol.89, pp.293–299. Abstract.
  • L. Joe Moffitt, John K. Stranlund, and Barry C. Field, 2005, Inspections to Avert Terrorism: Robustness Under Severe Uncertainty, Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, Vol. 2: No. 3.
  • Yakov Ben-Haim and Keith W.Hipel, 2002, The graph model for conflict resolution with information-gap uncertainty in  preferences, Applied Mathematics and Computation, 126:  319-340. Pre-print.

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