National Security

Tactical or strategic planning often confronts severe uncertainties. These uncertainties arise in characterizing the situation to be confronted, in assessing the intentions and capabilities of the parties, and in understanding the dynamics of interactions, etc. Info-gap theory has been applied to some of these problems.

  • Yakov Ben-Haim, 2006, Info-gap Decision Theory: Decisions Under Severe Uncertainty, 2nd edition, Academic Press, London.
    Section 3.2.9: Search and evasion.
    Section 3.2.11: Bio-terror preparedness with epidemiological models.
     
  • Michael Ben-Gad, Yakov Ben-Haim and Dan Peled, Allocating security expenditures under Knightian uncertainty: An info-gap approach, Defence and Peace Economics, to appear. Abstract.
     
  • Yakov Ben-Haim, 2018, What strategic planners need to know,  Workshop on Strategic Uncertainty in National Security, Samuel Neaman Institute, Technion, 26.6.2018. Link to pre-print.
     
  • Yakov Ben-Haim, 2018, WEI-WUV for assessing force effectiveness: Managing uncertainty with info-gap theory, Military Operations Research, to appear. Abstract. Pre-publication version.
     
  • Yakov Ben-Haim, 2018, Positivism and its limitations for strategic intelligence: A non-constructivist info-gap critique, Intelligence and National Security, 33(6): 904-917. Abstract. Pre-publication version.
     
  • Yakov Ben-Haim, 2017, Does a better model yield a better argument? An info-gap analysis, Proceedings of the Royal Society, A, 5 April 2017. Abstract. Pre-publication version. Link to PRSA site. Summarized on Phys.org here.
     
  • Yakov Ben-Haim, 2017, Assessing change: Intelligence assessment in support of policy in tumultuous times, Panel on The Intelligence-Policy Nexus, International Studies Association Annual Meeting, 22-25.2.2017, Baltimore, Maryland. Pre-print.
     
  • Yakov Ben-Haim, 2016, Policy neutrality and uncertainty: An info-gap perspective, Intelligence and National Security, published online 18.12.2015, vol.31, #7, pp978-992Pre-print.
     
  • Yakov Ben-Haim, 2016, Uncertainty and deterrence, Air and Space Power Journal – A&F, vol. 7, issue 3, pp.26-49. English online version. French online version.
     
  • Yakov Ben-Haim, 2015, Uncertainty and deterrence, International Studies Association Annual Conference, 18–21 February 2015, New Orleans. Pre-print.
     
  • Yakov Ben-Haim, 2015, Dealing with uncertainty in strategic decision-making, Parameters, US Army War College Quarterly, 45(3) Autumn 2015. Pre-print., Hebrew version.
     
  • Yakov Ben-Haim, 2014, Strategy selection: An info-gap methodology, Defense & Security Analysis, 30(2): 106-119. Pre-print.
     
  • Yakov Ben-Haim, 2014, Innovation dilemmas in military affairs, Maarachot, (in Hebrew) issue 454, pp.28-31, April 2014. Online version.
     
  • Yakov Ben-Haim, 2011, Interpreting null results from measurements with uncertain correlations: An info-gap approach, Risk Analysis-An International Journal, vol.31 (1), pp.78-85. Preprint.
     
  • Song, Y.-X. , Huang, D.-B. , Xiao, P., 2013, Robustness analysis of equilibrium outcomes based on information-gap of hypergame preference perception, Xi Tong Gong Cheng Yu Dian Zi Ji Shu/Systems Engineering and Electronics, 35(2): 362-365.
    Abstract

    Abstract

    The information-gap model which represents the uncertainty of hypergame outcome preference perception is established and the robustness analysis of equilibrium outcomes of hypergame is discussed. For a given uncertainty parameter, by iteratively defining a sequence of sets of preference vectors which are successively further from the nominal preference perception vector, the information-gap model for hypergame preference perception is designed. The robustness of equilibrium outcomes of hypergame is analyzed based on the information-gap model by determining the greatest value of the uncertainty parameter for which the set of equilibrium solutions is the same as the nominal equilibrium set. A military example illustrates the proposed method at the end.

    Keywords

    Equilibrium outcome; Hypergame; Information-gap; Preference perception; Robustness analysis

  • Tania Mirer and Yakov Ben-Haim, 2010, Reliability Assessment of Explosive Material Based on Penalty Tests: An Info-Gap Approach, Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O, Journal of Risk and Reliability, vol. 224(4), pp.346-355. Pre-print.
    Abstract

    Abstract

    A method is developed for experimental assessment of reliability of a system with a stringent safety requirement: explosive material. The focus is on analysis and management of both statistical variability of measurements and non-probabilistic uncertainty in probability distributions (distributional uncertainty). Info-gap theory is used to model the distributional uncertainty in the pdf of the threshold for actuation of the explosive material. The quantitative analysis and the qualitative judgments which accompany the certification of safety are studied. A proposition is proven asserting that the info-gap robustness function, for the class of problems examined, is independent of the experimental design over virtually all of its range.

  • Sisso, Itay, Tal Shima, and Yakov Ben-Haim, Info-gap approach to multi agent search under severe uncertainty, IEEE Transactions on Robotics, vol.26(6), pp.1032-1041. Pre-print.
     
  • Lior Davidovitch and Yakov Ben-Haim, 2011, Is your profiling strategy robust? Law, Probability and Risk, 10: 59-76. pdf preprint.
    Abstract

    Abstract

    The economic theory of crime views criminals as rational decision makers, implying elastic response to law enforcement. Group-dependent elasticities can be exploited for efficient allocation of enforcement resources. However, profiling can augment both number of arrests and total crime, since non-profiled groups will increase their criminality. Elasticities are highly uncertain, so prediction is difficult and uncertainty must be accounted for in designing a profiling strategy. We use info-gap theory for satisficing (not minimizing) total crime rate. Using an empirical example, based on running red lights, we demonstrate the trade-off between robustness to uncertainty and total crime rate.

    Keywords

    Info-gap decision theory; profiling; severe uncertainty; satisficing.

  • Dan Peled, Yakov Ben-Haim, Michael Ben-Gad, 2007, Allocating Security Expenditures under Knightian Uncertainty: An Info-Gap Approach, Samuel Neaman Institute for Advanced Studies in Science and Technology.
     
  • Anna Yoffe and Yakov Ben-Haim, 2006, An info-gap approach to policy selection for bio-terror response, IEEE International Conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics, ISI 2006, San Diego, CA, USA, May 23-24, 2006, pp.554-559. Also appearing in: Lecture Notes in Computer Science, Vol. 3975 LNCS, 2006, pp.554-559, Springer-Verlag, Berlin. Pre-print.
     
  • Matthias C.M. Troffeas and John Paul Gosling, 2012, Robust detection of exotic infectious diseases in animal herds: A comparative study of three decision methodologies under severe uncertainty, Intl J of Approximate Reasoning, 53: 1271-1281.
    Abstract

    Abstract

    When animals are transported and pass through customs, some of them may have dangerous infectious diseases. Typically, due to the cost of testing, not all animals are tested: a reasonable selection must be made. How to test effectively whilst avoiding costly disease outbreaks? First, we extend a model proposed in the literature for the detection of invasive species to suit our purpose, and we discuss the main sources of model uncertainty, many of which are hard to quantify. Secondly, we explore and compare three decision methodologies on the problem at hand, namely, Bayesian statistics, info-gap theory and imprecise probability theory, all of which are designed to handle severe uncertainty. We show that, under rather general conditions, every info-gap solution is maximal with respect to a suitably chosen imprecise probability model, and that therefore, perhaps surprisingly, the set of maximal options can be inferred at least partly – and sometimes entirely – from an info-gap analysis.

    Keywords

    Exotic disease, Lower prevision, Info-gap, Maximality, Minimax, Robustness

  • Matthias C.M. Troffeas and John Paul Gosling, Robust detection of exotic infectious diseases in animal herds: A comparative study of two decision methodologies under severe uncertainty, 7th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications, Innsbruck, Austria, 25-28 July 2011. Paper.
     
  • L. Joe Moffitt, John K. Stranlund and Craig D. Osteen, 2008, Robust detection protocols for uncertain introductions of invasive species, Journal of Environmental Management, vol.89, pp.293–299. Abstract.
     
  • L. Joe Moffitt, John K. Stranlund, and Barry C. Field, 2005, Inspections to Avert Terrorism: Robustness Under Severe Uncertainty, Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, Vol. 2: No. 3.http://www.bepress.com/jhsem/vol2/iss3/3
     
  • Yakov Ben-Haim and Keith W.Hipel, 2002, The graph model for conflict resolution with information-gap uncertainty in  preferences, Applied Mathematics and Computation, 126:  319-340. Pre-print.

Questions or comments on info-gap theory? Contact me at yakov@technion.ac.il