Reliability in Design and Analysis

  • Yakov Ben-Haim, 2005, Info-gap Decision Theory For Engineering Design. Or: Why `Good’ is Preferable to `Best’, appearing as chapter 11 in Engineering Design Reliability Handbook, Edited by Efstratios Nikolaidis, Dan M.Ghiocel and Surendra Singhal, CRC Press, Boca Raton. Pre-print.
     
  • Antoine Ajenjo, Emmanuel Ardillon, Vincent Chabridon, Scott Cogan and Emeline Sadoulet-Reboul, 2020, Robustness evaluation of reliability assessments of penstocks using info-gap method, Proceedings of the 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and the 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference. Edited by Piero Baraldi, Francesco Di Maio and Enrico Zio. Abstract.
     
  • Guan, W., Zhang, J., Ababei, C., 2020, Reliability optimization under severe uncertainty for noc based architectures using an info-gap decision approach, 63rd IEEE International Midwest Symposium on Circuits and Systems, MWSCAS 2020; Springfield; United States; 9 August 2020 through 12 August 2020, Article number 9184673, Pages 478-481. Abstract.
     
  • Jun-Ming Hu, Hong-Zhong Huang and Yan-Feng Li, 2019, Reliability growth planning based on information gap decision theory, Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing, vol. 133. Abstract.
     
  • Yakov Ben-Haim, 1996, Robust Reliability in the Mechanical Sciences, Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
     
  • Yakov Ben-Haim, 2015, Info-gap theory: An intuitive overview for engineering design and reliability assessment, ESREL 2015, European Safety and Reliability Conference, 7-10.9.2015, Zurich, Switzerland. Pre-print.
     
  • Yakov Ben-Haim, 2012, Doing Our Best: Optimization and the Management of Risk, Risk Analysis, 32(8): 1326-1332. Pre-print, The published version, The definitive version.
    Abstract

    Abstract

    Tools and concepts of optimization are widespread in decision-making, design and planning. There is a moral imperative to ‘do our best’. Optimization underlies theories in physics and biology, and economic theories often presume that economic agents are optimizers. We argue that, in decisions under uncertainty, what should be optimized is robustness rather than performance. We discuss the equity premium puzzle from financial economics, and explain that the puzzle can be resolved by using the strategy of satisficing rather than optimizing. We discuss design of critical technological infrastructure, showing that satisficing of performance requirements – rather than optimizing them – is a preferable design concept. We explore the need for disaster recovery capability and its methodological dilemma. The disparate domains – economics and engineering – illuminate different aspects of the challenge of uncertainty and of the significance of robust-satisficing.

    keywords

    optimizing, satisficing, robustness, uncertainty, info-gap, financial investment, equity premium puzzle, technological infrastructure, moral hazard, disaster recovery

     
  • Yakov Ben-Haim, 2012, Why risk analysis is difficult, and some thoughts on how to proceed, Risk Analysis,32(10): 1638-1646. Pre-print Published version, The definitive version
    Abstract

    Abstract

    Risk analysis is challenged in three ways by uncertainty. Our understanding of the world and its uncertainties is evolving; indeterminism is an inherent part of the open universe in which we live; and learning from experience involves untestable assumptions. We discuss several concepts of robustness as tools for responding to these epistemological challenges. The use of models is justified, even though they are known to err. A concept of robustness is illustrated in choosing between a conventional technology and an innovative, promising, but more uncertain technology. We explain that non-probabilistic robust decisions are sometimes good probabilistic bets. Info-gap and worst-case concepts of robustness are compared. Finally, we examine the exploitation of favorable but uncertain opportunities and its relation to robust decision making.

    Keywords:

    robustness, uncertainty, info-gap theory, satisficing, optimizing

     
  • Yakov Ben-Haim, 2011, When is non-probabilistic robustness a good probabilistic bet? Working paper.
     
  • Yakov Ben-Haim, 2014, Robust satisficing and the probability of survival, Intl. J. of Systems Science, 45(1): 3-19, appearing on-line 9 May 2012. Online preview.
     
  • S.Gareth Pierce, Yakov Ben-Haim, Keith Worden, Graeme Manson, 2006, Evaluation of neural network robust reliability using information-gap theory, IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks, vol.17, No.6, pp.1349-1361.
     
  • Liu, G.,  Li, K.,  Wang, X.,  Li, L.-L., 2016, Damage detection based on info-gap approach, Gongcheng Lixue/Engineering Mechanics, Volume 33, 1 June 2016, Pages 257-261.
    Abstract

    Abstract

    A novel Information-gap-based (Info-gap) damage detection method for uncertainty quantification is proposed in this study. The modal shapes of structures are selected as damage indices, and the uncertainty level of these indices caused by measurement errors and modal identification are described by Info-gap model. The decision function is defined as the distance of modal shape between health and unknown condition of structures, and then the solution of this function is translated into an optimization problem. The results from a numerical simulation and lab-scale structure show that the location and severity of damage can be successfully identified.

    Author keywords

    Damage detection; Distance function; Info-gap theory; Optimization; Uncertainty.

    Indexed keywords

    Optimization; Uncertainty analysis; Decision functions; Distance functions; Info-gap; Modal identification; Novel information; Optimization problems; Uncertainty; Uncertainty quantifications; Damage detection

     
  • Yakov Ben-Haim, Miriam Zacksenhouse, Ronit Eshel, Raphael Levi, Avi Fuerst and Wayne Bentley, 2014, Failure detection with likelihood ratio tests and uncertain probabilities: An info-gap application, Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing, vol. 48, pp.1-14. Pre-print.
     
  • M. Pasquali, C.J. Stull and C.R. Farrar, 2015, Info-gap robustness of an input signal optimization algorithm for damage detection, Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing, vol.50-51: 1-10.
    Abstract

    Highlights

    • IGDT is used to assess the robustness of an optimal input signal designing technique.
    • The case of uncertainty affecting the parameters of a 2-DOF system is analyzed.
    • It can be critical when affecting the masses or the linear stiffnesses values.
    • Small influence is due to changes in the nonlinear stiffnesses or the damping ratios.
    • The analyzed algorithm has shown to be robust to variations in the damage level.

    Abstract

    Info-Gap Decision Theory is adopted to assess the robustness of a technique aimed at identifying the optimal excitation signal to be used for active sensing approaches to damage detection. Here the term “active sensing” refers to procedures where a known input is applied to the structure to enhance the damage detection process. Given limited system response measurements and ever-present physical limits on the level of excitation, the ultimate goal of the mentioned technique is to improve the detectability of damage by increasing the difference between measured outputs of the undamaged and damaged systems. In particular, a two degree-of-freedom mass–spring–damper system characterized by the presence of a nonlinear stiffness is considered. Uncertainty is introduced to the system in the form of deviations of its parameters (mass, stiffness, damping ratio) from their nominal values. Variations in the performance of the mentioned technique are then evaluated both in terms of changes in the estimated difference between the responses of the damaged and undamaged systems and in terms of deviations of the identified optimal input signal from its nominal estimation. Finally, plots of the performances of the analyzed algorithm for different levels of uncertainty are obtained, enabling a clear evaluation of the risks connected with designing excitation signals for damage detection, when the parameters that dictate system behavior (e.g. stiffness, mass) are poorly characterized or improperly modeled.

    Keywords

    Info-Gap Decision Theory; Uncertainty; Structural health monitoring; Optimization

  • Christopher J. Stull, François M. Hemez and Charles R. Farrar, 2012, On assessing the robustness of structural health monitoring technologies, Structural Health Monitoring, Abstract.
     
  • Tania Mirer and Yakov Ben-Haim, 2010, Reliability Assessment of Explosive Material Based on Penalty Tests: An Info-Gap Approach, Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O, Journal of Risk and Reliability, vol. 224(4), pp.346-355. Pre-print. 
    Abstract

    Abstract

    A method is developed for experimental assessment of reliability of a system with a stringent safety requirement: explosive material. The focus is on analysis and management of both statistical variability of measurements and non-probabilistic uncertainty in probability distributions (distributional uncertainty). Info-gap theory is used to model the distributional uncertainty in the pdf of the threshold for actuation of the explosive material. The quantitative analysis and the qualitative judgments which accompany the certification of safety are studied. A proposition is proven asserting that the info-gap robustness function, for the class of problems examined, is independent of the experimental design over virtually all of its range.

     
  • Yuanfu Tang, Jianqiao Chen and Junhong Wei, 2012, A Sequential Algorithm for Reliability-Based Robust Design Optimization Under Epistemic Uncertainty, ASME Journal of Mechanical Design, January 2012, Vol. 134.
    Abstract

    Abstract

    In practical applications, there may exist a disparity between real values and optimal results due to uncertainties. This kind of disparity may cause violations of some probabilistic constraints in a reliability based design optimization (RBDO) problem. It is important to ensure that the probabilistic constraints at the optimum in a RBDO problem are insensitive to the variations of design variables. In this paper, we propose a novel concept and procedure for reliability based robust design in the context of random uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty. The epistemic uncertainty of design variables is first described by an info gap model, and then the reliability-based robust design optimization (RBRDO) is formulated. To reduce the computational burden in solving RBRDO problems, a sequential algorithm using shifting factors is developed. The algorithm consists of a sequence of cycles and each cycle contains a deterministic optimization followed by an inverse robustness and reliability evaluation. The optimal result based on the proposed model satisfies certain reliability requirement and has the feasible robustness to the epistemic uncertainty of design variables. Two examples are presented to demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of the proposed method.

    Keywords

    epistemic uncertainty, info-gap models, feasible robustness index, sequential algorithm, shifting factor, reliabilitybased robust design optimization

     
  • Chen, J., Tang, Y., Wei, J. and Ge, R., 2012, Reliability robust design of structures under incomplete information, Yingyong Lixue Xuebao/Chinese Journal of Applied Mechanics, Volume 29(4): 404-409.
    Abstract

    Abstract

    This paper first discusses the reliability-based design optimization (RDO) of structures under the mixture of random, interval and fuzzy variables. The sequential single-loop optimization method is applied for RDO with different combinations of uncertaities. Info-gap models are used to represent errors between “true” values and design results. A sequential algorithm for the robust reliability design is presented. Example 1 shows that the fuzzy reliability design can offer conservative result. The results of example 2 show there are different robust optimal solutions when the robustness index takes different values. When alpha_t is greater than 0.2, the robust optimal solution does not exist. After 1291 times computation of the objective function, the optimal result can be obtained by using the sequential algorithm for the robust reliability design, while 8107 times computation are needed by the conventional optimum algorithm.

    Keywords

    Incomplete information; Info-gap model; Possibility-based design; Reliability-based design; Robust design optimization

     
  • Wang, F. , Zhang, J., Wang, X., Wang, C., and Liu, Z., 2012, A non-probabilistic reliability analysis on uncertainties systems, Proceedings of IEEE 2012 Prognostics and System Health Management Conference,Article number 6228861.
    Abstract

    Abstract

    This paper is concerned with the non-probabilistic methods to deal with uncertainties problems. First, this paper analyzes the difference between non-probabilistic reliability methods and traditional probabilistic reliability methods, which makes the comparative analysis on aspects of the application scope of methods, the use of processes and the complexity of employment. Second, this paper introduces the basic concept of the convex model, as the interval model, the ellipsoid model and the multidimensional ellipsoid model are briefly presented. Third, this paper analyzes the use of information gap model of uncertainty, including the basic application of the model and the way to use. Finally, numerical example is given to illustrate the validity and efficiency of non-probabilistic reliability method. The example used herein is reliability analysis of fatigue strength of turbine blade, but it is also an important reference of other types of uncertainties systems. Compared with the probability approach, the non-probabilistic information gap model only requires a small amount of samples to obtain the variation bounds of the imprecise parameters, and whereby makes the reliability analysis very convenient and economical.

    Keywords

    information gap model of uncertainty; non-probabilistic reliability method; the convex model

  • Li, K and Yang, Z., 2019, Info-Gap reliability model for structures with introduced fuzzy parameter, Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology (Natural Science Edition), Volume 47, Issue 1, 23 January 2019, Pages 39-43. Abstract.
     
  • Li, K.  and Z. Yang, Study on non-probabilistic structural reliability method based on info-gap decision theory,Jixie Qiangdu/Journal of Mechanical Strength, vol.35, issue 2, April 2013, pages 174-178.
    Abstract

    Abstract

    A dispersion parameter was proposed and introduced in the info-gap (information gap) model. The info-gap model introduced dispersion parameter has more applicability for structural reliability analysis. A general non-probabilistic structural reliability model was established by using the info-gap model introduced dispersion parameter to describe the uncertainties based on the info-gap decision theory. The non-probabilistic reliability index defined in the new model can be obtained by solving a nonlinear programming problem. The mathematical deduction shows the relationship of the non-probabilistic structural reliability method based on info-gap model and the traditional probabilistic structural reliability method, which also shows the consistency of the two methods.

    Keywords

    Dispersion parameter; Info-gap(information-gap) model; Non-probabilistic reliability; Reliability index

  • Li, K., Z. Yang and Z. Zhou, Non-probabilistic structural reliability model introduced restrictions on set expansion, Jixie Qiangdu/Journal of Mechanical Strength, vol.35, issue 3, June 2013, pages 258-262.
    Abstract

    Abstract

    The difference of the dispersion style of the uncertainty quantities in the practical structural reliability problems was pointed out. The info-gap (information-gap) model with restriction was advanced by introducing a new parameter in the origin model. The new model could be degenerated into the origin model. The non-probabilistic structural reliability method with the info-gap model introducing restriction parameter could utilize the existing information thoroughly and estimate the structural reliability more reasonably. Comparing with the existing model the new non-probabilistic structural reliability model could reveal the influence of the restriction information on structural reliability. The numerical example shows that the non-probabilistic reliability index ignored the restriction of uncertainty quantities span would be too conservative.

    Keywords

    Info-gap(information-gap) model; Non-probabilistic reliability; Reliability index; Robust reliability; Set expansion

  • Li, K. F., 2012, Study on the Non-probabilistic Reliability Methods for Structures based on Info-gap Theory (Ph.D. Thesis). Naval University of Engineering, Wuhan.
     
  • Li, K., Yang, Z., Sun, W., 2011, Non-probabilistic structural reliability model based on ellipsoidal-bound model with nonlinear expansion, Applied Mechanics and Materials, Vol. 65, pp.264-267.
    Abstract

    Abstract

    Info-gap model is the foundation of the non-probabilistic reliability model. In this paper, ellipsoidal-bound model which is the most common Info-gap model has been updated by acquiring restriction information about uncertain quantities. The initial ellipsoidal-bound model can be degenerated from the updated model. A non-probabilistic structural reliability model based on the updated ellipsoidal-bound model was established. A non-probabilistic reliability index was proposed and the calculation method was also given. The example shows that the introduction of restriction information is valid, and the new non-probabilistic reliability model can reveal the influence of the span restriction of uncertain quantities on structural reliability.

  • S.G. Pierce, K. Worden and G. Manson, 2006, A novel information-gap technique to assess reliability of neural network-based damage detection Journal of Sound and Vibration, 293: Issues 1-2, pp.96-111.
     
  • Pascal Vinot, Scott Cogan and Gerard Lallement, 2003, Approche non-probabiliste de fiabilite basee sur les modeles convexes: A non-probabilistic reliability approach based on convex models, Mecanique & Industries,Volume 4, Issue 1, January-February 2003, Pages 45-50.
     
  • Yakov Ben-Haim, 1997, Robust reliability of structures, Advances in Applied Mechanics, vol. 33, pp.1-41.
     
  • Yakov Ben-Haim, 1998, Reliability of Vibrating Structures With Uncertain Inputs. Shock and Vibration Digest, 30: 106-113. Pre-print.
     
  • Yakov Ben-Haim, A non-probabilistic concept of reliability, Structural Safety, 14:227-245 (1994). Link to a pre-print.